PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)

Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index Increases in November; U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Also Advances

NEW YORK, NY - January 10, 2000 - The TBR Index increased 0.2 percent for the month of November, while the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indictors increased by 0.3 percent.

The monthly rate of increase in the U.S. Index was consistent with an economic growth rate in the 4.0 percent range, the advance in the TBR Index was weaker than expected.

Despite the weakness in November, the TBR Index advanced at a 6.3 percent rate for the past 12 months as compared to 2.3 percent for the U.S. Index. The continuing rapid growth is clearly evident, as the increase in the TBR Index has been three times that of its U.S. counterpart.

In November, six of the nine economic categories that comprise the overall TBR Index increased 1.1 percent on a weighted basis -- Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates; Rental Car Price Per Day; Consumer Confidence; Travel and Tourism Employment; Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related Service, and Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments.

However, the strong increases in these six sectors were nearly offset by 0.9 percent decline in two more heavily weighted components of the TBR Index -- ARC Sales and Hotel/Motel Revenue.

In this context, the rather sharp fall in Hotel/Motel Revenue from October to November pulled down what would have otherwise been a solid gain in the TBR Index.

Despite the weaker performance in November, the travel and tourism industry is projected to have a strong future. In a recent Washington Times article, futurist Graham T.T. Molitor predicted that "travel and tourism will boom, as entertainment and hospitality industries become the next big economic wave to engulf the world."

"Supporting this view, the TBR Index provides concrete data to demonstrate our contention that travel and tourism is a growth industry, and one which has great potential to sustain long-term success," notes Jonathan Tisch, President and CEO of Loews Hotels and Chairman of the Travel Business Roundtable. "To that end, the TBR will continue its mission of working with elected officials at all levels of government to ensure that we eliminate any barriers to our ability to become the world's largest industry well into this new millennium."

"From a policy perspective, the performance of these two Indexes over the past year continues to provide support to the Federal Reserve's view that the economy is growing at an unacceptable pace." notes Dr. James Howell, Economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group. "I expect that short term interest rates will increase early this year. But, in keeping with the hallmark of the Fed under Chairman Greenspan, there has been a pattern of making preliminary announcements about incremental adjustments. This policy has mitigated the adverse consequences in the economy."

Launched in 1997, the TBR Index calls regular attention to the economic importance of the travel and tourism industry and its impact on the U.S. Economy. The travel and tourism industry is diverse and broadly based, and while individual sectors regularly collect and publish information on the individual performance, the TBR Index describes the aggregate impact the industry has on the economy.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more than 70 CEO's representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR's membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world's largest industry by the year 2000, travel and tourism is the nation's third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 16 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism. As America's leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $19 billion in 1998, injecting $91 billion of revenue into the U.S. economy.

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