PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)

The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index Of Leading Indicators Fell 0.7 Percent In December As A Result Of The Impact Y2K Had On The Industry

NEW YORK, NY - February 11, 2000 - The TBR Index declined 0.7 percent in December, while the U.S. index of Leading Economic Indicators advanced 0.4 percent.

The December decline in the TBR Index was concentrated in the airline and hotel/motel industries. The decline was also widely anticipated, and reflected concerns with Y2K possible problems.

Specific sectors where the decline was concentrated included ARC total sales; ATA revenue passenger miles; Hotel/motel revenue index; Hotel/motel occupancy rate.

The decline in these four economic indicators was sufficiently strong to offset increases in four other sectors – Rental care price per day; Consumer confidence; Travel/tourism employment; and personal consumption expenditures for travel and related services.

In the retail sales at eating and drinking establishments sector, the December data were unchanged from the preceding months.

The encouraging statistical conclusion, notes Dr. James Howell of The Howell Group, is "that the TBR Index correctly reflected the Y2K impact; that is, the Index is accurately reflecting the external influences affecting the travel and tourism industry."

Looking ahead, the sharp December decline is expected to be followed by a strong bounce back in January and February. After which time, the TBR Index is expected to return to its five to seven percent annual growth rate, which has consistently been more than two times faster than the U.S. Index.

Dr. Howell also notes that the increase in the December U.S. Index, as well as the 2.4 percent advance for the year, provides considerable support to the conclusion that the current economic expansion will progress well into 2001.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more than 70 CEOs representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR's membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world's largest industry by the year 2000, travel and tourism is the nation's third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 16 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism. As America's leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $19 billion in 1998, injecting $91 billion of revenue into the U.S. economy.

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