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PRESS RELEASE
For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
The TBR Index of Leading Economic Indicators Bounces Back
In January To Record A Robust 1.0 Percent Increase
WASHINGTON, D.C.—March 14, 2000 – Reflective
of an anticipated rebound following concerns about the transitional
effects of Y2K, the Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index
advanced a strong 1.0 percent in January. The U.S.
Index of Leading Economic Indicators also rose by 0.3
percent.
The increase in the January TBR Index represents a renewed
continuation of strong growth in the travel and tourism industry.
Overall, the pace of economic activity in the industry, at
an annual rate of about 5.0 percent, has consistently outperformed
the 2.0 to 3.0 percent increases in the U.S. Index.
This pattern reflects the continuing significant contribution
that travel and tourism makes to the strength and vitality
of the overall economy.
While the January increase in the TBR Index was expected
following the adverse economic and financial impact of Y2K,
the reversal followed a somewhat surprising pattern. With
negative Y2K impact in the four sectors of ARC Total Sales:
ATA Revenue Passenger Miles; Hotel/Motel Revenue and
Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate, the January recovery was
concentrated in one single sector – Hotel/Motel
Revenue.
In the remaining three sectors, the January data did not
continue to decline, but showed little or no change from December.
Retrospectively, common sense about consumer and business
behavior suggests that the return to a more normal growth
path following Y2K will likely take a couple more months.
Along with a dramatic turnabout in Hotel/Motel Revenue,
four other economically significant sectors contributed to
the increase in the TBR Index. These include: Consumer
Confidence; Rental Car Revenue Per Day; Travel and Tourism
Employment; and Personal Consumption Expenditures
for Travel and Related Services.
Taken together, the rates of increase in these five sectors
accounted for more than 90 percent of the January advance.
In the remaining four sectors, the January data were unchanged,
or slightly down from December – ATA Revenue Passenger
Miles; Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments;
Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates; and ARC Sales.
The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism,
entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all
the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite
TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month
changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations
are removed from these data before they are aggregated into
the final TBR Index.
Overall, the TBR Index reflects key industry changes throughout
the national economy and very much like the The Conference
Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, has been
statistically constructed to lead changes in overall economic
indicators such as GDP, personal income, industrial production
and other major economic performance variables.
The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more
than 70 CEO's representing all sectors of the travel and tourism
industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies,
travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR's membership
roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company,
USA Today, and the International Council of Shopping
Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry
represents. Projected to be the world's largest industry in
the year 2000, travel and tourism is the nation's third largest
retail industry and second largest employer with more than
17million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel
and tourism. As America's leading services export, travel
and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $12 billion
in 1999, generating $82 billion of tax revenue and $541 billion
in total expenditures.
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