PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

The TBR Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Advances A Very Strong 1.1 Percent In February

WASHINGTON, D.C.—April 12, 2000 – The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index increased 1.1 percent in February, the second monthly advance of 1.0 percent or greater. The broader U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.3 percent.

The rates of increase in the TBR Index for the first two months of the year are reflective of the strong growth momentum in the travel and tourism industry, and underscore its contribution to overall economic growth.

Historically, the TBR Index would show strong monthly increases in the first quarter, but would often be followed by slower increases in the spring. This pattern did not occur in 1998 and 1999, as the industry continued to turn in a sustained period of strong growth.

The 1.1 percent increase in the TBR Index was spread through a majority of the individual sectors that comprise the Index, with six of the nine sectors increasing in February. These include:

	ARC Total Sales
	ATA Revenue Passenger Miles
	Hotel/Motel Revenue
	Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate
	Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related Services
	Travel/Tourism Employment

While the strongest advances took place in the two hotel/motel industry segments, these six indicators comprise roughly three fourth of the total Index. As such, their monthly behavior is representative of the overall travel and tourism industry.

Modest declines were noted in Rental Car Revenue Per Day and Consumer Confidence, while Travel/Tourism Employment data remained unchanged.

"With the Fed pushing up interest rates, we will be carefully watching the monthly increases over the next several months to see if the industry's strong contribution to overall economic growth continues," notes Dr. James Howell, economist and president of the Boston-based Howell Group.

Dr. Howell also points to the impact of the tight labor markets in the travel and tourism industry. As the nation's second largest employer, this challenge is one that will likely continue to pose problem to the industry.

As a result, the TBR is taking a lead role in addressing this issue. This includes joining with the Essential Worker Immigration Coalition – a group of businesses, trade associations, and other organizations, whose mission is to support policy that facilitates the employment of essential workers by U.S. companies and organizations. To that end, when companies can not fill jobs with U.S. workers, hiring foreign nationals should be a viable alternative.

In addition, under the leadership of TBR Chairman and President and CEO Jonathan Tisch , the TBR is encouraging its membership to help transition former welfare recipients into the lodging industry.

"Welfare to work is the perfect example of doing what's right for business and what's right for society," notes Tisch, who is also Vice Chair of the Welfare to Work Partnership. "With the labor pool shrinking, we need to access a new work force. To that end, former welfare recipients are workers who are available right now."

The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism, entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations are removed from these data before they are aggregated into the final TBR Index.

Overall, the TBR Index reflects key industry changes throughout the national economy and very much like the The Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, has been statistically constructed to lead changes in overall economic indicators such as GDP, personal income, industrial production and other major economic performance variables.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more than 60 CEO's representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR's membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world's largest industry in the year 2000, travel and tourism is the nation's third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 17million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism. As America's leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $12 billion in 1999, generating $82 billion of tax revenue and $541 billion in total expenditures.

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