PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

The TBR Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Drops Sharply In April 2000 Following Three Months Of Consecutive Increases

WASHINGTON, D.C. – June 7, 2000 – Following three strong consecutive monthly increases, the Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.6 percent in April. The U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.1 percent.The decline in the TBR Index was concentrated in the lodging industry, and most likely reflected a single month's adjustment from the near unsustainable rates of increase that took place in the first quarter of the year.

Declines in a total of three sectors included Hotel/Motel Revenue, Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates, and Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments, with no change from the pervious month in the Rental Car Revenue Per Day sector.

Increases were in five sectors that included:

	ARC Total Sales
	ATA Revenue Passenger Miles
	Consumer Confidence
	Travel/Tourism Employment
	Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related Services

In reviewing the data, Dr. James Howell, Economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group, noted that the decline in the two lodging industry performance measures are not particularly significant because of the strong increases that occurred in March. Accordingly, this suggests that the April revenue and occupancy rates simply shifted downward to much more sustainable monthly rates of increase.

"As a result, we believe that the data for these two sectors should not be considered as the beginning of a new trend to slower industry growth, but rather a realistic adjustment," says Howell. "This conclusion is also reinforced by the fact the ARC Total Sales and ATA Revenue Passenger miles – two other bellwether indicators – advanced strongly in April.

Howell also notes that the 0.1 percent decline in the U.S. Index represents a continuation of generally lackluster performance beginning in July 1999, and that it is not realistic to conclude that the Index's behavior over the past two or three months is the result of tighter Fed Policies.

The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism, entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations are removed from these data before they are aggregated into the final TBR Index.

Overall, the TBR Index reflects key industry changes throughout the national economy and very much like the The Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, has been statistically constructed to lead changes in overall economic indicators such as GDP, personal income, industrial production and other major economic performance variables.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more than 60 CEO's representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR's membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world's largest industry in the year 2000, travel and tourism is the nation's third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 17million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism. As America's leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $12 billion in 1999, generating $82 billion of tax revenue and $541 billion in total expenditures.

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