PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Advances Slightly In July

WASHINGTON, D.C. - September 13, 2000 - The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased slightly in July - up 0.1 percent (see chart). Following the 0.2 percent increase in June, the very modest advance in the July TBR Index reflects the fact that six of the nine sectors that comprise the TBR Index remain unchanged.

These include:

	ARC Sales
	ATA Revenue Passenger Miles
	Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related Services
	Hotel/motel Revenue
	Rental Car Revenue Per Day
	Travel/Tourism Employment

Among the three remaining indicators, there were increases in Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments, but these positive developments were virtually offset by a decline in the Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates.

Comparatively, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.1 percent in July, making it the third consecutive month in which the U.S. Index remained essentially flat. The slower growth rate in the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators continues to imply a softening in the economy’s pace of growth in 2001, rather than a dramatic falloff in the growth rate.

"It would be significantly premature at this time to conclude that the two-month slowing in the TBR Index provides any indication the two Indexes will move in a more coincident fashion," notes Dr. James Howell, economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group. "That is due in large part to the fact that the key determinants of consumer demand for travel and tourism - employment, consumer spending and consumer confidence, remain quiet strong. To that end, the June-July performance of the TBR Index is probably no more than a statistical ‘fluff.’"

The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism, entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations are removed from these data before they are aggregated into the final TBR Index.

Overall, the TBR Index reflects key industry changes throughout the national economy and very much like the Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, has been statistically constructed to lead changes in overall economic indicators such as GDP, personal income, industrial production and other major economic performance variables.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more than 60 CEO’s representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, TravelNow.com, the Taubman Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world’s largest industry in the year 2000, travel and tourism is the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 17million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism. As America’s leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $12 billion in 1999, generating $82 billion of tax revenue and $541 billion in total expenditures.

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