PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Shows Strong Rebound For September

WASHINGTON, D.C. - November 9, 2000 - The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index of Leading Economic Indicators bounced back vigorously in September with an increase of 0.7 percent. That followed a decline of 0.5 percent in August.

The TBR Index advance was not only robust, but was also spread throughout the industry sectors with seven of the nine indicators up for the month. The strongest increases were in ARC Sales, Consumer Confidence, Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate and Hotel/Motel Revenue. More modest increases were also in Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments, Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related Services and Travel/Tourism Employment.

Declines were reported in Rental Car Revenue Per Day and ATA Revenue Passengers Miles.

The U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators was unchanged for September, reflective of the lackluster monthly changes in the U.S. Index since December 1999.

While some observers believe that these weak monthly rates of change in the U.S. Index point to a slowing in growth that could give way to a mile recession late in the new year or in early 2002, Dr. James Howell, economist and President of the Boston based Howell Group believes that isn’t necessarily the case, and that the economy’s growth rate will likely be maintained at an acceptable level.

"While it may be true that the monthly rates of change in the U.S. Index have slowed, this has not led to a sustained period of cumulative decline which would provide an early warning of a pending recession," notes Howell. "In addition, the underlying fundamentals in the economy, including consumer spending, remain strong. "

Howell also adds that the Fed has now completed the current phase of interest rate increases and will not likely consider changes rates until they have reviewed first quarter data for 2001.

Relative to the travel and tourism industry specifically, Howell notes that the impetus for growth in the U.S. economy is coming primarily from non-manufacturing industries, which have been major beneficiaries of the Information Revolution, and their strong collective growth indicates that the traditional manufacturing construction led business cycle is a thing of the past.

The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism, entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations are removed from these data before they are aggregated into the final TBR Index.

Overall, the TBR Index reflects key industry changes throughout the national economy and very much like the Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, has been statistically constructed to lead changes in overall economic indicators such as GDP, personal income, industrial production and other major economic performance variables.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more than 60 CEO’s representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, TravelNow.com, the Taubman Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world’s largest industry in the year 2000, travel and tourism is the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 17 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism. As America’s leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $12 billion in 1999, generating $82 billion of tax revenue and $541 billion in total expenditures.

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