PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Increases Fractionally In November

WASHINGTON, D.C. - January 8, 2001 -The Travel Business Roundtable Index (TBR) of Leading Economic Indicators increased slightly with a fractional 0.1 percent gain in November.

Combined with the abrupt slowing in the TBR Index over the past several months, the TBR Index is now more closely in line with the lackluster performance in the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators over the past year. During the month of November, the U.S. Index declined by 0.2 percent.

Though this change of course was deemed unlikely several months ago, the speed with which the U.S. economy weakened in the fall, and the extent to which it spread to many sectors - including those where consumer confidence plays a dominant role - is quite significant, according to Dr. James Howell, economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group.

"While the speed in which a softening national economy spread through most sectors was not originally anticipated, the slowing in the TBR Index since June should not be overstated," adds Howell. "For the first time since its creation several years ago, there has been minimal change in the month to month reporting of the Index."

In reviewing the historical behavior in the TBR Index vis a vis the U.S. Index, Dr. Howell also notes that the recent performances of both Indexes does not point to a 2001 recession. In addition, overall economic activity in the travel and tourism industry remains at a very high level - over 40 percent about the level that prevailed at the previous recession low in early 1992.

Howell also adds that the recent Fed action to cut the Fed funds rate by 5o basis points was both bold and the "right step to take at this time in terms of avoiding a recession."

The modest November advance in the TBR Index resulted from conflicting changes across the nine sectors.

There were sharp declines in two sectors - Consumer Confidence and Hotel/Motel Revenue, and relatively modest increases in three sectors - ARC Sales, Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates, and Rental Car Revenue Per Day.

In the four remaining sectors, the November data were unchanged - ATA Revenue Passenger Miles, Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments, Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related Services, and Travel and Tourism Employment. 

TBR IDENTIFIES GOALS FOR 107TH CONGRESS

With the recent convening of the 107th Congress, TBR has also identified several key issues that it will continue to focus on in its ongoing efforts to work in partnership with elected officials. These include:

	Travel and Tourism Industry Worker Shortage
	Work Opportunity Tax Credit
	Welfare-to-Work Tax Credit
	Raising the visibility of the U.S. as an international travel destination
	Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts
	Formation of a Presidential Advisory council for Travel and Tourism
	Minimum wage policy
	Business Meal deduction
	Frequent Flyer tax
	OSHA ergonomics standard
	American with Disability Act accessibility guidelines

The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism, entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations are removed from these data before they are aggregated into the final TBR Index.

Overall, the TBR Index reflects key industry changes throughout the national economy and very much like the Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, has been statistically constructed to lead changes in overall economic indicators such as GDP, personal income, industrial production and other major economic performance variables.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more than 60 CEO’s representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, TravelNow.com, the Taubman Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world’s largest industry in the year 2000, travel and tourism is the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 17 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism. As America’s leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $12 billion in 1999, generating $82 billion of tax revenue and $541 billion in total expenditures.

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