|
PRESS RELEASE
For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com
Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index Of Leading Economic
Indicators Declines Sharply In December 2000
WASHINGTON, D.C. - February 13, 2001 - The Travel
Business Roundtable (TBR) Index of Leading Economic Indicators
declined at a 1.4 percent seasonally adjusted rate in December
2000. During the same period, the U.S. Index of Leading
Economic Indicators declined 0.6 percent.
The TBR Index now clearly points to a slowing in activity
in the travel and tourism industry over the next six to 12
months.
According to Dr. James Howell, economist and President of
the Boston-based Howell Group, the 1.4 percent decline must
be considered significant, especially when viewed within the
context of the irregular - but clearly weakening - monthly
rates of change in the Index since May.
In December, declines were spread through six of the nine
economic sectors, including: ARC Sales, ATA Revenue
Passenger Miles, Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales at Eating
and Drinking Establishments, Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates,
and Hotel/Motel Revenue.
In the remaining three sectors, the monthly performance indicators
were unchanged from the preceding months. These included:
Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related
Services, Rental Car Revenue Per Day and Travel
and Tourism Employment.
Dr. Howell adds that the 0.6 percent decline in the Conference
Board’s U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators is
also significant, as it represents an intensification of a
sideways to downward trend that began last January. Within
this context, the retrospective view must be that the recent
slowing in the rate of increase in GDP was not surprising,
and that quarterly rates of change in GDP in the second half
of the year showed an economy that may be on the cusp of a
recession.
To that point, a recent analysis by the economists at The
Conference Board concluded that among the 10 indicators that
make up the U.S. Index, six have already peaked and turned
downward during 2000.
But, while the softening of these indicators cuts across
significant sectors in aggregate demand - manufacturing, housing,
capital markets and consumer spending, Dr. Howell adds that
there is still uncertainty as to whether they point to a recession
in 2001.
"The bottom line is that the course of the economy over
the next six months is uncertain," says Howell. "The
critical factors will be the response of the equity markets
and consumer confidence to recent Fed actions and the proposed
tax cut by President Bush. However, in the short-term, it
is likely that the Fed will cut rates, which will help to
temper any further slowing in the nation’s growth rate."
The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism,
entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all
the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite
TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month
changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations
are removed from these data before they are aggregated into
the final TBR Index.
Overall, the TBR Index reflects key industry changes throughout
the national economy and very much like the Conference Board's
U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, has been statistically
constructed to lead changes in overall economic indicators
such as GDP, personal income, industrial production and other
major economic performance variables.
Despite the slowing economy, travel and tourism remains one
of the fastest growing industries. In celebration of National
Travel and Tourism Week from May 7-11, TBR is producing
a video showcasing travel to and within the U.S. It will feature
and be shown by participating members including:, Delta
Air Lines, Loews Hotels, Hyatt Hotels, Hilton Hotels, FelCor
Lodging Trust Inc, The Taubman Company, Cendant Corporation,
Amtrak, and Radisson Hotels and Resorts.
The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more
than 60 CEO’s representing all sectors of the travel
and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car
rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains,
TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such
as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, TravelNow.com, the Taubman
Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers,
demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents.
Projected to be the world’s largest industry within the
decade, travel and tourism is the nation’s third largest
retail industry and second largest employer with more than
17 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel
and tourism. As America’s leading services export, travel
and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $12 billion
in 1999, generating $82 billion of tax revenue and $541 billion
in total expenditures.
back to top
ABOUT TBR
| CHAIRMAN'S CORNER |
LEGISLATIVE ACTION CENTER |
NEWSROOM | MEMBERS
|
