PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Bounces Back With A Strong 0.5 Percent Increase For January 2001

WASHINGTON, D.C. - March 14, 2001 -- The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5 percent for January 2001, which, along with an 0.8 percent increase in the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, provides a fresh, and more optimistic, new dimension concerning the underlying strength in the U.S. economy and the travel and tourism industry.

According to Dr. James Howell, economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group, the January increases are significant for three reasons:

	They represent a sharp turnabout from an earlier period in which both Indexes had declined.
	The rates of increase were robust, leading to the possibility of a stronger economy this fall.
	The increases were spread throughout the various individual sectors that comprise the Indexes. Specifically for the TBR Index, six of the nine components were up in January,

But, while a textbook increase in an economic index may be described as a strong monthly advance resulting from individual increases among the majority of indicators, Howell points out that a single month’s performance does not make a trend.

"It will take at least three to four months of consecutive monthly increases for us to conclude the pace of growth in the economy as a whole pick up this fall."

Bouncing back from a 1.4 percent decline in December, the January TBR Index is impressive as it was spread out through six of the nine sectors. These included: ARC Sales; Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments; Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related Services; Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates; Hotel/Motel Revenue; and Rental Car Revenue Per Day.

There was no change in the airline revenue indicator, ATA Revenue Passenger Miles, and there were declines in Consumer Confidence and Travel and Tourism Employment.

The strengths in the Hotel/Motel Revenue and Occupancy sectors were particularly noteworthy as the annual rates of change over the past 12 months reflected an increase of 10.4 percent and 5.5 percent respectively.

The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism, entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations are removed from these data before they are aggregated into the final TBR Index.

Overall, the TBR Index reflects key industry changes throughout the national economy and very much like the Conference Board's U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, has been statistically constructed to lead changes in overall economic indicators such as GDP, personal income, industrial production and other major economic performance variables.

As has been demonstrated by the results of the TBR Index, travel and tourism remains one of the fastest growing industries. In celebration of National Travel and Tourism Week from May 7-11, TBR is producing a video showcasing travel to and within the U.S. It will feature and be shown by participating members including:, Delta Air Lines, Loews Hotels, Hyatt Hotels, Hilton Hotels, FelCor Lodging Trust Inc, The Taubman Company, Cendant Corporation, Amtrak, and Radisson Hotels and Resorts.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a coalition of more than 60 CEO’s representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the Taubman Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world’s largest industry within the decade, travel and tourism is the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 17 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism. As America’s leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $12 billion in 1999, generating $82 billion of tax revenue and $541 billion in total expenditures.

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