PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

Travel Business Roundtable-World Travel and Tourism Council (TBR-WTTC) Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Bounces Back In May

NOTE TO EDITORS: Please note the new name of the TBR/WTTC Index of Leading Economic Indicators, to reflect the alliance that has been formed between the Travel Business Roundtable and the World Travel and Tourism Council.

WASHINGTON, D.C. - July 17, 2001 -- The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) World Travel and Tourism Council /(WTTC) Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May. This follows the sharp 2.2 percent decline in April. Since November, the TBR Index has followed an irregular pattern - three months were up, and three were down.

Comparatively, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators also showed an increase of 0.5 percent for the month of May.

In looking at the data, Dr. James Howell, Economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group, notes that the relatively stronger performance in May must be judged in the context of the decline over the past 12 months, taking into account the cyclical adjustment that has already affected the travel and tourism industry more seriously than the U.S. economy as a whole.

Dr. Howell adds that while a 0.4 percent increase represents a very positive turnabout from the preceding month, it must be noted that the apparent strength in the May TBR Index was dominated by a very strong increase in one single indicator - Consumer Confidence.

Seven of the eight remaining indicators were either unchanged or up only slightly, while Rental Car Price per Day, declined. This indicator has been soft for the past several months, reflecting recent spending cutbacks in corporate travel.

Only one other sector showed any strength in May - Hotel/Motel Revenue, with a very modest seasonally adjusted increase of 0.1 percent.

And, with six of the nine indicators remaining unchanged from April, it points to an industry with a "sideways meanders," which is a characteristic often observed at a turning point in the business cycle. These six unchanged indicators include ARC (Total Travel Agent) Sales, ATA Revenue Passenger Miles, Eating Establishment Sales, GDP: Consumption of Services, Hotel/Motel Occupancy and Travel and Tourism Industry Employment.

In looking at the U.S. economy as a whole, Dr. Howell adds that he believes the data indicate that the U.S. economy has successfully passed through the most recent cyclical pause without slipping into a recession. With regard to the TBR Index and the travel and tourism industry, analysts will look for not only consistent monthly increases, but also a decisive shift to increases across the majority of indicators in the Index.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a CEO-based organization representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the Taubman Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world’s largest industry within the decade, travel and tourism is the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 17 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism.

The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism, entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations are removed from these data before they are aggregated into the final TBR Index.

Projected to be the world’s largest industry within the decade, travel and tourism is also America’s leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $17 billion in 2000, generating $99.5 billion of tax revenue and more than $582.5 billion in total expenditures.

Reflecting of the important global aspects of the travel industry TBR has formed a strategic affiliation with The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) -- the global business leaders' forum for Travel & Tourism. Its Members are Chief Executives from all sectors of industry, including accommodation, catering, entertainment, recreation, transportation and other travel-related services.

Founded in April 1990, WTTC policies are set and implemented by a Member Executive Committee, a President and a small staff in London, with representative offices in North & South America, Asia/Pacific and Europe.

WTTC's Strategic Priorities are the organisation's guiding policy platform. They identify the potential for Travel & Tourism to generate almost 60 million new jobs or 252 million jobs by 2010 across the world economy, with new public/private sector cooperation.

In addition to the TBR-WTTC Index, the two organizations will work together on various issues affecting the travel industry.

back to top

ABOUT TBR | CHAIRMAN'S CORNER | LEGISLATIVE ACTION CENTER |
NEWSROOM | MEMBERS