PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release
Contact: Debra Kelman 212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) - World Travel And Tourism Council (WTTC) Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Declines Abruptly For July 2001

NOTE TO EDITORS: THE JULY INDEX NATURALLY PRECEDES THE EVENTS OF SEPTEMBER 11, 2001, WHICH WILL NATURALLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRAVEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY.

WASHINGTON, D.C. - September 10, 2001 -- The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR)-World Travel and Tourism Council (TBR-WTTC) Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 1.5 percent in July - an abrupt turnabout from the relatively strong increases over the two preceding months. Comparatively, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3 percent for the same period.

While last month’s Index indicated a more positive commentary about the economic performance of the travel and tourism industry within the context of U.S. economy, which seemed to be on the cusp of renewed growth, the sharp decline of the TBR-WTTC Index in July changed that outlook. This is especially given that the decline was concentrated in key sectors of the Index.

According to Dr. James Howell, economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group, there are two factors that may be responsible for the decline. The first is that as the business cycle recession, or cyclical pause, bottom outs, consumer confidence reaches its lowest point. This affects discretionary consumer spending. Secondly, the full impacts of business cuts in travel and related expenditures -- usually launched only after management has become convinced that a serious slowdown has begun -- have their impact late in the cycle.

With specific regard to the nine sectors that comprise the TBR-WTTC Index, two thirds of the 1.5 percent decline was concentrated in the Hotel/Motel Revenue and Occupancy sectors with weak performances also in ARC (Travel Agent) Sales, Consumer Confidence and Rental Car Price Per Day. Fractional increases were noted in Personal Consumption Expenditures for Travel and Related Items and Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments. No changes were experienced in ATA Revenue Passenger Miles and Travel and Tourism Employment.

Conversely, the 0.3 percent increase in the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators represented the fourth consecutive monthly increases, which based on historical behavior, provides considerable evidence that a strengthening in overall growth may be expected this fall.

The TBR Index is a composite of nine key travel, tourism, entertainment, and restaurant data measures representing all the major economic sectors of this industry. The composite TBR Index represents a weighted computation of the month-to-month changes in each of the individual time series. Seasonal fluctuations are removed from these data before they are aggregated into the final TBR Index.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a CEO-based organization representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the Taubman Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. Projected to be the world’s largest industry within the decade, travel and tourism is the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 17million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism.

Projected to be the world’s largest industry within the decade, travel and tourism is also America’s leading services export, travel and tourism created a trade surplus of nearly $17 billion in 2000, generating $99.5 billion of tax revenue and more than $582.5 billion in total expenditures.

Reflecting of the important global aspects of the travel industry TBR has formed a strategic affiliation with The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) -- the global business leaders' forum for Travel & Tourism. Its members are chief executives from all sectors of industry, including accommodation, catering, entertainment, recreation, transportation and other travel-related services.

Founded in April 1990, WTTC policies are set and implemented by a Member Executive Committee, a President and a small staff in London, with representative offices in North & South America, Asia/Pacific and Europe.

WTTC's Strategic Priorities are the organisation's guiding policy platform. They identify the potential for Travel & Tourism to generate almost 60 million new jobs or 252 million jobs by 2010 across the world economy, with new public/private sector cooperation.

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