PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release

The TBR/WTTC Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Continued To Strengthen In December

December advance amounted to a robust 1.5 percent - the third consecutive monthly increase

WASHINGTON, D.C. - February 12, 2002 - The TBR/WTTC Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased robustly in December at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.5 percent. In addition, the December increase was widespread throughout the Index with advances in six of the nine indicators.

Taken together, this behavior tells us that the travel and tourism industry is now in the early stages of a recovery from the 2001-2002 national recession and the tragic events of September 11th. However, it will take more than just a few months before the industry returns to its previous peak.

In December 2001, the TBR/WTTC Index stood at 127.3 (1992=100) while the previous peak in September of 2000 was 140.1. But, more importantly, as the industry continues to recover, it will return to its important role of making substantial contributions to our nation’s overall growth rate.

The release of the December data provides us with the opportunity to assess the performance of the travel and tourism industry for 2001 as a whole, and to compare recent developments with the historical performance of the industry in the context of the performance of the TBR/WTTC Index since its inception in 1987.

Shown in the table below are the December-to-December changes for the years 1988 to 2001 in the TBR/WTTC Index along with The Conference Board’s U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators for the same period.

Annual Rates of Change in the TBR/WTTC and U.S. Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators

In Years of Business
Cycle Growth TBR/WTTC Index U.S. Index
1988 3.7% 0.4%
89 -0.2 -0.6

In Years of Business
Cycle Contraction
1990 -7.5 -1.7
91 -1.5 1.1

In Years of Business
Cycle Growth
1992 6.0 1.9
93 2.5 0.2
94 4.3 0.4
95 0.7 -0.4
1996 2.3 1.5
97 7.8 2.0
98 2.4 1.8
99 5.2 2.4
2000 3.5 -1.5

In Years of Business
Cycle Contraction
2001 -7.4 2.7

According to Dr. James Howell, economist and president of the Boston-based Howell Group, there are at least four important conclusions that may be derived from these two sets of data; these are:

	The 7.4 percent decline in 2001 does not appear that severe by historical comparison, but here, the data can be misleading. The impact of September 11th on the industry was very significant. Specifically, over the first eight months of 2001, the TBR/WTTC Index declined 1.4 percent, as the negative consequences of the national recession began to adversely impact the travel and tourism industry. In September alone, the Index fell 8.4 percent. Since September, however, the Index has risen 2.5 percent.
	September 11th did not appear to affect the behavior of the U.S. Index as much as that of the TBR/WTTC Index. This is because the components of the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators are statistically biased toward manufacturing activity.
	The recent bounce back in the TBR/WTTC Index is encouraging, and it provides some partial evidence that the Industry’s recovery from the events of September 11th as well as the 2000-2001 national recession may not be as prolonged as previously thought. If this proves to be the case, it means that the prolonged period of the industry stagnation that characterized the 1990-92 period will be avoided.
	Looking ahead, it is worth emphasizing that the travel and tourism industry is one of the key sources of growth in the U.S. economy. During the 1992-2000 business cycle growth period, the average annual growth rate for the industry - as measured by the TBR/WTTC Index - amounted to 3.9 percent, or more than four times faster than that of the U.S. Index.

As previously stated, six of the nine indicators increased in December; these were:

	ARC (travel agent) total sales
	Hotel/Motel occupancy rates
	Rental car revenue per day
	Consumer confidence
	Personal expenditures for travel and related items
	Retail sales at eating and drinking establishments

In two indicators - Hotel/Motel Revenue and ATA Revenue Passenger Miles - the December figures were down slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month. In the final sector - travel and tourism employment - the December data were unchanged.

Finally, the recovery from the September low has been dominated by gains in ARC Sales and in hotel/motel occupancy rates.

Reflecting the important global aspects of the travel industry, TBR recently announced its strategic affiliation with The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) - the global business leaders' forum for Travel & Tourism. Its members are chief executives from all sectors of industry, including accommodation, catering, entertainment, recreation, transportation and other travel-related services.

Founded in April 1990, WTTC policies are set and implemented by a Member Executive Committee, a President and a small staff in London, with representative offices in North & South America, Asia/Pacific and Europe.

Together, TBR and WTTC will work together on new collaborative initiatives and publications in its combined efforts to help the industry return to a position of economic growth in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on September 11th.

In addition, TBR is continuing to work on the formation of a Presidential Advisory Council on Travel and Tourism, which has received considerable support from the Administration and members of Congress.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a CEO-based organization representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the Taubman Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. In 2000, travel and tourism was the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 18 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism.

CONTACT:
Debra Kelman
212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

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