PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release

The TBR/WTTC Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Advanced Again In January 2002

A Robust 1.4 Percent Increase Is The Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain Since September

WASHINGTON, D.C. - March 19, 2002 - After a fourth consecutive month of increases in the Travel Business Roundtable/World Travel and Tourism Council (TBR/WTTC) Index of Leading Economic Indicators, there is considerable support for the conclusion that the travel and tourism industry is moving to recover ground lost in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks.

Theses positive strides are clearly evident from the data shown in the brief table below.

The new data are important to correctly assess the current industry recovery in the context of the overall U.S. recovery rate, especially since there are some indications that the 2001 national recession has ended. There are several important points.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of increase in the U.S. Index - at 8.3 percent -provides support to Chairman Greenspan’s conclusion that the recession is over. However, considerable ground remains to be made up until the industry returns to pre-September 11th levels of activity. The TBR/WTTC Index in August, 2001 amounted to 135.6.

The rate of recovery from the levels of September 11th has grown nearly 40 percent faster in the travel and tourism industry than in the economy as a whole. The strength of this conclusion must be tempered by the magnitude of the fall in the industry in September. The TBR/WTTC Index declined 8.4 percent in September alone, while the U.S. Index fell only 0.5 percent. "The speed of recovery continues to surprise us," notes Dr. James Howell, economist and president of the Boston-based Howell Group. "While the travel and tourism industry traditionally has lagged a year or more behind other sectors of the economy in recovering from a recession, these numbers indicate that parts of the industry may actually recover more quickly than expected.Further supporting this view is the release of WTTC’s annual economic research, which indicates that the dramatic impact of September 11th will begin to stabilize during 2002.

In a first for the industry, WTTC has been able to identify and separate the different effects of the recession and September 11th on travel and tourism. Through its research, WTTC estimates the impact of September 11th will cause a 7.4 per cent decline in travel and tourism related demand in years 2001 and 2002 combined, which will result in a total worldwide loss of over 10 million jobs. WTTC is confident, however, that this downward trend is finite and will begin to reverse in the second half of 2002.

According to WTTC’s research, a massive worldwide rebound will occur in 2003 with global travel and tourism demand forecast to increase in real terms by six percent, expected to result in the creation of 6.8 million jobs.

DETAILS ON THE TBR/WTTC INDEX

The January increase in the TBR/WTTC Index amounted to 1.4 percent. The disaggregated data showing the relative contribution of each of the nine individual indicators to the overall change are shown in the brief table below.

Weighted Contribution of the Individual Indicators to the Overall January Increase in the TBR/WTTC Index

OVERALL INCREASE: 1.4%

INCREASES OCCURRED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTORS: 1.88

Hotel/motel revenue: 0.72
Rental car revenue per day: 0.46
Consumer Confidence: 0.36
ARC Sales: 0.27
Personal consumption expenditure

;for travel and related items: 0.04
Retail sales at eating and drinking establishments: 0.03

DECLINES OCCURRED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTORS: -0.53

Hotel/motel occupancy rates: -0.39
ATA Revenue Passenger Miles: -0.13
Travel and Tourism Industry employment: -0.01

The basic areas of strength - Hotel/motel revenue, Rental car revenue, Consumer confidence, and ARC sales - are fundamental to the industry’s recovery. To that end, it was not surprising that the UBS Warburg Semi-Annual Hotel Industry Survey uncovered a far more optimistic industry at year-end. Fifty seven percent of the U.S. hotels surveyed expect the 2002 RevPAR to be positive. Other industry sources - most notably, Smith Travel Research - have reached equally positive conclusions.

As the industry looks to the future, Dr. Howell concludes that while there is reason to be optimistic, there are still challenges to face over the next four to six months.

# # #

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is the global business leaders' forum for Travel & Tourism in. Its members are chief executives from all sectors of industry, including accommodation, catering, entertainment, recreation, transportation and other travel-related services.

Founded in April 1990, WTTC policies are set and implemented by a Member Executive Committee, a President and a small staff in London, with representative offices in North & South America, Asia/Pacific and Europe.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a CEO-based organization representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the National Football League, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. In 2000, travel and tourism was the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 18 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism.

CONTACT:
Debra Kelman
212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

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