PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release

Travel Business Roundtable/World Travel And Toursim Council (TBC/WTTC) Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Advances A Robust 1.1 Percent In March, 2002

WASHINGTON, D.C. - May 21, 2002 - The seasonally adjusted increase in the March, 2002 TBR/WTTC Index of Leading Economic Indicators was a robust 1.1 percent, making it the sixth consecutive monthly increase since September, 2001. Since December of 2001, the average monthly rate of increase in this important tracking indicator has amounted to 1.3 percent.

During March, the companion U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.1 percent. The relevant data for the key turning points for these two Indexes are shown in the brief table below.

Taken together, the data provides considerable insight into the performance of the travel and tourism industry in the U.S. economy. Two specific points are most relevant:

The monthly rates of change in the U.S. Index of Economic Indicators continue to be quite strong, especially since the events of September, 2001. Moreover, since this past October, more than one-half of the ten indicators included in the U.S. Index have consistently advanced on a month-to-month basis. This suggests that the monthly rates of change in the overall Index are not only relatively strong, but are also pervasive throughout the 10 individual sectors. These developments strongly confirm that the 2002 economic recovery is now well established.

The continued bounce back in the TBR/WTTC Index provides significant support to the conclusion that the overall Index will most likely exceed, by year-end, its previous peak from June of 2001. This underscores the underlying strength of the industry and its contribution to the overall growth of the economy.

The March increase in the TBR/WTTC Index was dominated by strong advances in four of the nine individual sectors. These are:

	ATA Revenue Passenger Miles
	Hotel/motel revenue
	Consumer confidence
	Consumer spending on travel and related items

The March improvement in consumer confidence was also substantial 3Ñ4 a monthly increase of 17 percent. This provides further support that such strong gains in confidence bode well for the travel and tourism industry.

Modest declines were noted in the remaining five indicators:

	ARC total sales
	Hotel/motel occupancy rates
	Rental car daily revenue
	Employment in the Travel and Tourism Industry
	Retail sales at eating and drinking establishments

According to Dr. James Howell, economist and president of the Boston-based Howell Group, adds that another way to judge the performance of the travel and tourism industry is to analyze the rates of change in the nine indicators that make up the TBR/WTTC Index.

Specifically, Dr. Howell notes the following:

	First, the adverse impacts of September 11th hit four key sectors hard and almost immediately; these were: ARC sales, hotel/motel revenue, hotel/motel occupancy rates, and consumer confidence.
	Second, three sectors 3Ñ4 rental car revenue, travel and tourism employment, and personal consumption expenditures for travel and related items 3Ñ4 were virtually unaffected in the month of September by the September 11th events. It is interesting to note that over the six-month period ending in March of 2002, travel and tourism employment showed a lagging negative effect, declining by 8 percent, and ATA RPM’s lagged by nearly 10 percent.
	Third, by March of 2002, only two of the sectors in the Index performance measures advanced above the levels reached in August, 2001 3Ñ4 rental car revenue and personal consumption expenditures for travel and related items. For the remaining seven sectors, or indicators, the current Index numbers were below their August, 2001 levels. While recovery has clearly been evident in most sectors, ATA Revenue Passenger Miles, hotel/motel occupancy rates, and travel and tourism employment remained well below their August, 2001 levels.

Dr. Howell adds that the effects of September 11th still have had a negative impact on at least two sectors 3Ñ4 ATA Revenue Passenger Miles and Travel and Tourism Employment.

While it appears that through March, the hotel/motel revenue has begun to rebound on a seasonally adjusted basis and current revenue levels are back to those achieved in August of 2001, occupancy rates are still well below their former levels.

Specifically, at year end and through the first two months of this year, roughly one half of the hotel/motels in the top 25 markets were still discounting their rates by as much as 15 percent or more. By March, hotels/motels had recovered to the point where only five markets were discounting by 10 percent or more.

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The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is the global business leaders' forum for Travel & Tourism in. Its members are chief executives from all sectors of industry, including accommodation, catering, entertainment, recreation, transportation and other travel-related services.

Founded in April 1990, WTTC policies are set and implemented by a Member Executive Committee, a President and a small staff in London, with representative offices in North & South America, Asia/Pacific and Europe.

The Travel Business Roundtable is a CEO-based organization representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the National Football League, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. In 2000, travel and tourism was the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 18 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism.

CONTACT:
Debra Kelman
212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

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