PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release

The Travel Business Roundtable/World Travel And Tourism Council (TBR/WTTC) Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Declined 0.5 Percent In July

WASHINGTON, D.C. - September 25, 2002 - The July decline in the Travel Business Roundtable/World Travel and Tourism Council (TBR/WTTC) Index of Leading Economic Indicators of 0.5 percent was the first decline since September, 2001. The relevant data for the TBR/WTTC and the U.S. Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators is shown in the table below:

"While we don’t want to read too much into the modest fall in July in the TBR/WTTC Index, it is interesting to note that this Index amounted to two percent higher back in August, 2001, the month immediately preceding the September 11th attack," notes Dr. James Howell, economist and president of the Boston-based Howell Group. "The current Index suggests that the TBR/WTTC Index will exceed the August 2001 figure some time this fall. This point underscores the severity of the impact of September 11th on the travel and tourism industry."
Two closely related reports 3Û4 one a survey commissioned by TBR and Orbitz, the other an executive roundtable discussion held during the annual New York University Hospitality Industry Investment Conference 3Û4 emphasized the failure of business travelers to return to the market. While the TBR/WTTC Index does not yet differentiate between business and leisure travel, it is interesting to note the changes in the Indexes’ four key components that are those most affected by business travel. The rates of change are shown below:

These negative rates of change certainly confirm the impact that the 2001 national recession has had on the travel and tourism industry. Whatever the cyclical timing of these key indicators, the events of September 11th exacerbated an already vulnerable situation in the travel and tourism industry.

As for the specific performance in July of the nine individual indicators that make up the TBR/WTTC Index, the following monthly pattern occurred:

The three indicators that declined are:

	ARC sales
	Consumer confidence
	Hotel/motel occupancy

The three indicators that are unchanged from the previous month included:

	Hotel/motel revenue
	Personal consumption expenditures for travel and related items
	Travel and tourism employment

And finally, three indicators that increased are:

	Retail sales at eating and drinking establishments
	Rental car daily revenue
	ATA RPMs

"We may conclude that the performance of the Index has been somewhat troubling over the past three months, largely because the monthly rates of increase were so strong over the period October through April," adds Howell. "Without question, these strong month-to-month changes reflect the Industry’s initial rebound from September 11th."

Howell also adds that the industry’s future is increasingly being determined by the vagaries of the U.S. and international economies. As the U.S. economy improves, however, the industry should also begin to show steady, but perhaps less robust monthly gains.

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The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is the global business leaders' forum for Travel & Tourism. Its members are chief executives from all sectors of industry. Its central goal is to work with governments to realize the full economic impact of the world’s largest generator of wealth and jobs - travel and tourism. The WTTC’s Seven Strategic Priorities are the organization’s guiding policy platform.

The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) is a CEO-based organization representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the National Football League, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. In 2000, travel and tourism was the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 18 million people working directly and indirectly in the industry.

CONTACT:
Debra Kelman
212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

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