PRESS RELEASE

For Immediate Release

The TBR/WTTC Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Declined 1.7 Percent In September

WASHINGTON, D.C. - November 25, 2002 - With a decline in the Travel Business Roundtable/World Travel and Tourism Council Index (TBR/WTTC) of Leading Economic Indicators of 1.7 percent for September, it is clear that the third monthly consecutive decline points to serious economic difficulty for the travel and tourism industry.

The seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent drop in September pulled the overall Index down to 130.3, a decline of 2.5 percent since June or an annual rate of decline of 10.0 percent.

The relevant comparative analysis of the TBR/WTTC and U.S. Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators are shown in the following table.

Percent Change in the TBR/WTTC Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators

According to Dr. James Howell, economist and president of the Boston-based Howell Group, the interpretation of these rates of change is straightforward. Specifically, the U.S. economy and the travel and tourism industry made solid gains after September 11, 2001 until the early spring. Thereafter, both indicators have clearly shown a certain amount of weakness.

Dr. Howell adds that this current "soft patch" notwithstanding, there is considerable statistical evidence that many of the key fundamentals in the U.S. economy are in place. This would include the 3.1 percent growth rate in real GDP in the third quarter, the pickup in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index for November, and the improving employment and retail sales numbers. Moreover, the increasingly broad consensus seems to have developed that equity markets have turned around.

The September decline was spread throughout the TBR/WTTC Index; seven of the nine individual indicators declined. The remaining two 3/4 Personal Consumption Expenditure for Travel and Related Items and Travel and Tourism Employment 3/4 were unchanged from the previous month.

Declines were noted in the following sectors:* ARC (Travel Agent) Sales

	ATA Revenue Passenger Miles
	Consumer Confidence
	Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments
	Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate
	Hotel/Motel Revenue
	Rental Car Revenue per DayThe most significant declines took place in the Hotel/Motel sector. Seventy percent of the 1.7 percent fall may be explained by the declines in the Hotel/Motel sector alone.

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The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is the global business leaders' forum for Travel & Tourism. Its members are chief executives from all sectors of industry. Its central goal is to work with governments to realize the full economic impact of the world’s largest generator of wealth and jobs - travel and tourism. The WTTC’s Seven Strategic Priorities are the organization’s guiding policy platform.

The Travel Business Roundtable (TBR) is a CEO-based organization representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR’s membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the National Football League, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. In 2000, travel and tourism was the nation’s third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 18 million people working directly and indirectly in the industry.

CONTACT:
Debra Kelman
212-794-DKPR (3577)
dkelman@dkpr.com

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